token
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Post by token on Sept 3, 2017 19:31:58 GMT 10
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 3, 2017 19:42:43 GMT 10
I've been watching the news closely through abc, 7 and SBS apps for a few weeks now. They are updated often. I like how quickly I see updates this way.
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Post by graynomad on Sept 3, 2017 22:34:39 GMT 10
... i just cannot see how a war with NK wont happen. Me too I think. So the question is, how does that affect us?
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Post by SA Hunter on Sept 3, 2017 23:50:28 GMT 10
... i just cannot see how a war with NK wont happen. Me too I think. So the question is, how does that affect us? No expert, but just my opinion - NK is a buffer between the West & China - the last thing China wants is the US & Allies at it's border. If it gets to a shooting match, China has said it will retaliate if the US fires first. IfNK starts a shooting match, and the Allies forget the lessons from the Korean War, and find themselves at the Chinese border, I'd say to expect the same events as before - China attacks and pushes south. Then, it all turns pear shaped. Economically, China is our largest trading partner. Regardless if they get involved or not, it will affect our trade, as well as oil imports. The stock markets will tumble, and there pops the economic bubble. The flow on effects are too numerous, but you get the general idea. Militarily, if it gets to a shootout, and China starts shooting, well, the whole SA Asia will turn into a battlefield. How much so depends on what restraints the leaders of any nations involved decide to use. Honestly, if it gets to a shooting match, I think the balance of power will shift in this region. If we blindly follow the US, and they lose, do we lose our biggest trading partner, and then bring on economic collapse??? Any good to come out of this?? Well, a political assassination or a military coup in NK might change things, but, would a new leader who has some political/military nouse be a worse option??? Just my opinion, that of a novice in foreign political affairs.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Sept 4, 2017 9:44:45 GMT 10
The wild card here that people seem to forget about is what is South Korea going to do in amongst all this?
Its very important to remember that the greatest think tanks ,military tacticians and number crunchers have gone over and over the best and worst case scenario's for South Korea in the event things go hot and the best case scenario still comes in at 10 million causalities in the 1st 30 minutes and that's without the use of WMDS
So how do you present that to you population that even with highly successful strikes against NK positions 10 million of you will die in the ruins of Seoul in the 1st 30 minutes
now here is the tricky bit if you evacuate the city and nearby districts at risk in advance you trash your economy and internally displace 13 million people yep that's right you create 13 million internal refugee's which would also put a massive toll on any countries economy Now to add salt to a raw wound by doing this you may also trigger NK into thinking that that the US and its allies are about to launch an assault so they mistakenly take the opportunity to use it before they lose it so basically kicking off the conflict by miscalculation
Don't forget also NK has quite a stock pile of VEX nerve agent that CAN fit on their cruddy missiles which all of South Korea is in easy targeting range of
So as you can see South Korea and to a point Japan are the guys with the most to lose in any conflict even if its localised so it will be very interesting just how committed south Korea would be to kicking off some hot action with the north because lets face it so far its all been posturing and harsh words from both sides
china and Russia are the key the west must work with them regardless of who you think are the bad guys without cooperation with even Russia then any conflict is always going to be a game of Russian roulette ( pardon the pun ) unless you at least have the Russians on side simply because with say Russia on board with any action taken it will force china to think hard about its position on the conflict and does it want say Russia not helping them against the west and potentially have India take advantage of the situation while they are defending NK. The last thing any power player wants is to isolate themselves from the game and back a team they know can never win the fight the cost of doing so is just to much
That's just my thoughts on the subject based on freely available information in the internet
TLDR give the baby his candy and he will shut his fat mouth do this till you have at least Russia in your pocket and supportive
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Ammo9
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Post by Ammo9 on Sept 4, 2017 12:53:08 GMT 10
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 4, 2017 13:14:14 GMT 10
That article link only shows the start of the article, then gives me a message saying the rest is subscriber only content.
I did read in a mainstream paper earlier a quote from NK saying that they now have the capacity for an EMP attack on the US. I was surprised that there didn't seem to be any other discussion of that quote in other sources that I was searching.
I've been searching for that article to link it here but can't find it again.
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Sept 4, 2017 13:46:32 GMT 10
If NK launches anything even vaguely towards the US there will be so many anti missile missiles heading after it that it would be pointless to even attempt such a folly even NK knows this
Lets look at some facts and not fear mongering NK would have a very limited amount of effective functional delivery systems that are loaded and operational ready for rapid deployment and usage That handful of weapons you would really have to think long and hard about where you used them so they actually got to their targets and did some damage you would also want maximum psychological impact from the damage they caused so pretty much anywhere in South Korea or japan has a much higher probability than the US main land
The facts support this one key factor NK can only inflict limited damage without destroying itself if it uses WMD's the potential to do something doesn't mean they have the capability to do it effectively
Say they magically managed to fire off 30 missiles of different types at targets at the same time how many of those would fail at launch given the track record of tests then how many of them would even get clear of the Korean peninsula without being shot down by the THAAD systems in south Korea and japan and in subs lurking in the friendly waters just off shore the odds of a very successful 1st strike by NK is nothing more then fear of potential vs capability
The idea that NK can shoot off one missile and it makes its way to America and does an EMP strike crippling the country is pretty much lunacy and a great tool to sell products to the masses
To put it in perspective Russia has actively deployed 2000 ICBMS ready for launch all loaded with their pay load of nuclear fire the reason for so many is to give their birds the chance to get some of their warheads to the targets and deal out some damage Now a country that's been a nuclear power and played with missiles for quite some time thinks it needs that many missiles to get the job done to counter the enemy's defensive shields then you just know NK is taking the piss for even thinking they can harm the US mainland
so my point is all this talk about how NK can do this and can do that is all just talk about potential not realised capability
I have the potential to climb MT Everest but not the capability
Is NK real threat ? its a dangerous little pita that could potentially draw everyone into a needless conflict so lets hope they fire the 1st shot to keep the real big boys from joining in the guys that could inflict serious damage to everyone even potentialy reshape the geopolitical maps
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Sept 4, 2017 17:20:40 GMT 10
Trump has hinted at putting full sanctions on any country that trades with N.Korea. That would mean full sanctions against China and put a big spanner in the global economy that would shake the house of cards down.
That might be worse than a war with N.Korea. If Japan, S.Korea and the US hit N.Korea with everything they have baring nuclear warheads it would limit damage to S.Korea but will take out more than half of N.Korea.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 4, 2017 18:01:31 GMT 10
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 4, 2017 19:32:01 GMT 10
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grumble
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Post by grumble on Sept 5, 2017 9:18:37 GMT 10
I dont understand why Russia and China idly stand by whilst their delinquent neighbour North Korea baits the US and Japan into increasing their military presence in the area. If I was Japan I'd be investing in nuclear ICBM's to counter the NK threat, which would annoy China greatly. To be honest Russia and china haven't exactly been sitting by idly doing nothing its just the US wants everything on their terms or not at all
The Chinese deal that NK agreed to and signed in advance has been rejected twice by the US and the US has basically said no its on out terms or not at all The Chinese deal actually made sense if you took a second to step back and looked at it for what it offered the agreement was NK would halt its missile tests and permanently freeze its nuclear programme but in return the US and south Korea would stop holding military drills on the peninsular The US gave a flat no to this deal twice citing the right to train with their allies. which sound fine until you actually look at the detail of the training exercise are purely targeting NK so they are honestly fairly provocative imagine if Indonesia and china started doing training drills in case we invaded Indonesia we would be a bit butt hurt and see it as a threat
China has also cut imports from NK and blocked NK coal ships from entering their ports on several occasions as a clear message to NK they are losing patience with their nonsense The very public announcement they made not so long ago where they stated
if the US launched a pre-emptive attack against NK the would defend NK they also said in the same speech that if NK launched any direct attack 1st against the US or its allies Then China would remain neutral in the ensuring conflict so that was basically a waring to the US don't try your regime change crap on our boarders and NK don't go pick a fight with the biggest kid in yard and expect your big brother to save your ass
The other side of it all too is china doesn't mind the distraction as well because everyone has forgot about their magical growing island at this point in time so it suits them so long as it doesn't get to hot they can keep making islands while everyone is focused on NK For the record though china will do its best to avoid conflict in the region as they don't need the drama and its bad for their own long term goals plus lets not forge China has its own internal problems and dissidents that would take advantage of any major conflict china was involved in and you can pretty much rest assured the would be covert outside help for those dissidents
Now Russia is the wild card their key thing is they don't want another US ally on their boarder so NK serves as a meat buffer for them and their boarders however if the US and it allies approached Russia in the right manner and started to enter constructive dialog then they would be on side very quickly they don't give a crap about NK they just like the fact they are pissing off the US Russia is all about business and making money the sooner the west gets on board with this concept the less likely armed conflict with Russia becomes they sure as hell don't wan a costly war over NK either but they will if that's what it takes to get their point across
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token
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Post by token on Sept 5, 2017 9:23:32 GMT 10
I dont understand why Russia and China idly stand by whilst their delinquent neighbour North Korea baits the US and Japan into increasing their military presence in the area. If I was Japan I'd be investing in nuclear ICBM's to counter the NK threat, which would annoy China greatly. I suspect some other game going on to be quite honest, and why? Well, China, as i understand it, is responsible for 80% of NK imports and exports. Its trades were up with NK 40% in the first quarter too. So why the large increase? Russia increased their trade with NK 'sharply' at the start of the year also. I know that with the information we all get, may not be able to reveal exactly what NK has done to its country and what it has been working on since 1953 either. Something 'might' not be right here. Bigger agenda? maybe? I dont know.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 5, 2017 22:31:26 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Sept 9, 2017 20:53:27 GMT 10
No one in leadership circles in the US, China or Russia wants the NK situation to be solved. It's a convenient situation, albeit for differing reasons, for each of them. This will drag on, unresolved, for many years to come, without any discharge of Nukes from any party.
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 12, 2017 9:25:36 GMT 10
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tomatoes
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Post by tomatoes on Sept 15, 2017 14:53:15 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Sept 15, 2017 20:17:46 GMT 10
How hard must it be for the nation that spawned Samurai and Kamikaze to sit back and let Ding Dong Dill fire ballistic missiles over their homeland?
At what point do they harden up and return serve?
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Post by Peter on Sept 15, 2017 21:54:41 GMT 10
Japan fears China - NK's ally who have had a long rivalry with Japan. Watch news on the SK special forces squad who are due to be ready to assassinate Kim in December. I reckon it'll happen in late October amidst SK claims that their squad isn't ready yet...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2017 9:55:54 GMT 10
Reading everyone's posting, my feeling is the problem with N.K. is Kim is not responding to things to keep him in check the way a normal leaders would. I think they view sanctions against them as an attack, which they need to step up too and prove they cannot be manipulated, in a way the sanctions only help justify missiles and nuclear weapons for N.K. ..... it is very much a matter of saving face in a very lawless leadership structure, any showing of weakness can and maybe possible be Kim's undoing.
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