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Post by SA Hunter on Oct 22, 2018 19:16:58 GMT 10
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Oct 23, 2018 17:32:08 GMT 10
It has already started, and early stages but can escalate quickly.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 21, 2018 5:13:29 GMT 10
I think the collapse is here, the grinch has just stolen the stock markets. Everything deep in correction or bear market territory. Housing has been discussed, oil and energy big drops, it is the first year in deades that global vehicle production has fallen. Dow jones index has now +500 points down that is like five more than2% falls in the last 6 days. Bank liquidity and cash availability has dried up. Political issues are very heated. Wow Dow just lost another 80 points while typing this. It is 2008 on steroid, this time Australia will go down with global system. Reserve banks might try printing mo ey again not sue it will work www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/eshut1.png?itok=GDVgU6Wf
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Post by jonasparker on Dec 21, 2018 9:21:55 GMT 10
The "Grinch" is the Chairman of the US Federal Bank who is about a hairsbreadth away from getting his sorry ass fired by the President.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 21, 2018 11:18:06 GMT 10
The "Grinch" is the Chairman of the US Federal Bank who is about a hairsbreadth away from getting his sorry ass fired by the President. Yeah it is not good. Asian stocks are going down in sympathy. Australian stocks are now down 10% for the year. The NASDAQ went into bear market interday trading. Tech stocks arewhat have been leading the bull market. It can be a 2008 but x 100. I am expecting one day to wakeup and all bank accounts access the word are frozen. It is a massive global system so it might still take some time to unwind, but it is coming and not too far away.
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Post by Peter on Dec 21, 2018 11:49:37 GMT 10
I hope you're wrong (but I doubt it). If you consider how people lose their minds if they can't access EFTPOS funds for a couple of hours, imagine the rioting & crime if all trade effectively stops. The idea of living on a remote acreage is more tempting by the day.
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Post by spinifex on Dec 21, 2018 19:54:30 GMT 10
I think the collapse is here, the grinch has just stolen the stock markets. Everything deep in correction or bear market territory. Housing has been discussed, oil and energy big drops, it is the first year in deades that global vehicle production has fallen. Dow jones index has now +500 points down that is like five more than2% falls in the last 6 days. Bank liquidity and cash availability has dried up. Political issues are very heated. Wow Dow just lost another 80 points while typing this. It is 2008 on steroid, this time Australia will go down with global system. Reserve banks might try printing mo ey again not sue it will work www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/eshut1.png?itok=GDVgU6WfRemember 08? Reserve banks hit a few keys on their computers and next thing ... liquidity by the megaton. If reserve banks have to invent currency and become the buyers of last resort to jack prices back up ... they will. All the financial elite have too much riding on the system as it is to let it go into depression. This is the benefit of having currency in electronic form ... can create it in huge amounts at will and don't even have to buy ink and paper to print anything. Party like its 1999 folks. Some great buying opportunities in the months ahead!
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 21, 2018 21:35:37 GMT 10
Remember 08? Reserve banks hit a few keys on their computers and next thing ... liquidity by the megaton. If reserve banks have to invent currency and become the buyers of last resort to jack prices back up ... they will. All the financial elite have too much riding on the system as it is to let it go into depression. This is the benefit of having currency in electronic form ... can create it in huge amounts at will and don't even have to buy ink and paper to print anything. Party like its 1999 folks. Some great buying opportunities in the months ahead! One cant indefinitely create money, this time it will lead to hyperinflation and failure. Why not just print and give every Person on the earth $10,000 a month for free. The last round of printing created massive asset bubbles in housing, bonds, stocks etc... Once faith in the fiat money is lost it unravelled very quickly. The Roman empire flooded the streets with money as a last measure to prevent collapse but it did not work. Historically every government in the world that has printed money has come to a sticky end, it is delusion to think it will be different this time. An excellent graphic on the collapse of the Roman empire and how they devalued their money. www.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse-of-the-roman-empire/
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 22, 2018 8:02:30 GMT 10
Stocks had another big down day. US having a showdown with the Chinese over technology theft and Trump having a showdown with the democrats over funding the Mexican wall, if the US gov shuts down over Christmas due to lack of budget approval - 'getting interesting' would be a major understatement. Chinese stocks are down 23.92% year to date. Banks are getting crushed, expert more Lehman Brothers type collapse. Debt levels are so high the international monetary fund (IMF) came out with a statement this week saying they don't have enough resources to prop up the market if it had to fail.
Worst week for Russell 2000 since Sept 2011 (5th week lower in last 6)
Worst week for Dow, Nasdaq since Oct 2008 (5th week lower in last 6)
Worst week for S&P since Aug 2011 (5th week lower in last 6)
From the 52-week highs:
Dow -16%
S&P -17%
Nasdaq 100 -21% - BEAR
Nasdaq Composite -22% - BEAR
Trannies -23.6% - BEAR
Small Caps -26% - BEAR
First it was the Russell 2000. Then the Nasdaq Composite. Today it's the Nasdaq-100 that crossed a bear-market threshold by retreating 20% from a peak. The index's record was set Aug. 29, the same day as the broader Nasdaq index.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 22, 2018 11:42:18 GMT 10
I don't know what all those figures really mean, as in how will they impact myself and my immediate family. All I know is my son and I still have unlimited overtime (my son is back to working 100hrs a week), my mrs would love a redundancy but can't get one, my daughter can still basically name her price when negotiating her salary, the value of my real estate portfolio is still strong, and most of my super is immune from the stock market. So I'm not worried yet. There is always high employment just before a recession. Spending and debt goes crazy with good employment opportunities like there is no tomorrow, then when the time comes it unravelled very quickly. One day you are not worried the next day it all comes unglued. Every time economic systems fail and hyperinflation sets in people are caught out and say how could this happen here. There will soon be one of those ah ha moments.
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Post by spinifex on Dec 22, 2018 17:34:33 GMT 10
Remember 08? Reserve banks hit a few keys on their computers and next thing ... liquidity by the megaton. If reserve banks have to invent currency and become the buyers of last resort to jack prices back up ... they will. All the financial elite have too much riding on the system as it is to let it go into depression. This is the benefit of having currency in electronic form ... can create it in huge amounts at will and don't even have to buy ink and paper to print anything. Party like its 1999 folks. Some great buying opportunities in the months ahead! One cant indefinitely create money, this time it will lead to hyperinflation and failure. Why not just print and give every Person on the earth $10,000 a month for free. The last round of printing created massive asset bubbles in housing, bonds, stocks etc... Once faith in the fiat money is lost it unravelled very quickly. The Roman empire flooded the streets with money as a last measure to prevent collapse but it did not work. Historically every government in the world that has printed money has come to a sticky end, it is delusion to think it will be different this time. An excellent graphic on the collapse of the Roman empire and how they devalued their money. www.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse-of-the-roman-empire/I totally agree that inventing currency out of thin air has dire consequences for an economy (just look at the effectiveness of US v Russian military hardware these days). Hand out too much easy currency and the obese corporations get slack because results don't matter. And yes ... the end game this time will probably be reserve banks injecting currency directly into all our bank accounts. The economic system we are all in IS highly delusional. I just am betting that an even bigger bubble will be re-inflated after the current ones start to deflate because those in charge of the system will defend the status quo to the last round (re-liquidate markets of all kinds). Then they'll spike the cannon (hyperinflate) and destroy everything before retreating to well defended enclaves. Gold backed money may return for the privileged. Or ... it might not. Hard to say. Peoples attitudes have changed a bit since the fall of Rome. Last time round I did well on buying mining company shares when the likes of BHP tanked from 45 to 22 a share in late 2008 then back upto the 40's in 2011. Being naturally contrarian I'm looking for more of the same this time round. Probably in Ag commodities this time. If the system REALLY goes bust ... 'investments' will be the last of anyones worries. Just securing the basics to survive will be a deep challenge for the under-prepared. And even quite a few 'preppers' may be scratching their heads when day 366 of the crisis comes around and the last day of the years supply of food they had tucked away has been consumed. If one hasn't figured out their economic niche within a few weeks of the system flipping ... it will likely be a poor outcome.
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 22, 2018 19:37:01 GMT 10
I totally agree that inventing currency out of thin air has dire consequences for an economy (just look at the effectiveness of US v Russian military hardware these days). Hand out too much easy currency and the obese corporations get slack because results don't matter. And yes ... the end game this time will probably be reserve banks injecting currency directly into all our bank accounts. The economic system we are all in IS highly delusional. I just am betting that an even bigger bubble will be re-inflated after the current ones start to deflate because those in charge of the system will defend the status quo to the last round (re-liquidate markets of all kinds). Then they'll spike the cannon (hyperinflate) and destroy everything before retreating to well defended enclaves. Gold backed money may return for the privileged. Or ... it might not. Hard to say. Peoples attitudes have changed a bit since the fall of Rome. Last time round I did well on buying mining company shares when the likes of BHP tanked from 45 to 22 a share in late 2008 then back upto the 40's in 2011. Being naturally contrarian I'm looking for more of the same this time round. Probably in Ag commodities this time. If the system REALLY goes bust ... 'investments' will be the last of anyones worries. Just securing the basics to survive will be a deep challenge for the under-prepared. And even quite a few 'preppers' may be scratching their heads when day 366 of the crisis comes around and the last day of the years supply of food they had tucked away has been consumed. If one hasn't figured out their economic niche within a few weeks of the system flipping ... it will likely be a poor outcome. That is the billion dollar question, can central banks re-inflate the market or start with the helicopter money, by sending the printed money to main-street instead of wall-street... If more money printing is now undertaken when the US, EU have just said they are no longer buying bonds, all faith might be lost, who is going to buy the US bonds when the currencies start failing. With global economy slowing down and company earning starting to contract, and interest rates going up it is very difficult to justify stock purchases. The Chinese have been responsible for most of the global growth, but they have also come to an end with 50 million empty apartments etc.. there is not much left to build and the interest on the empty assets are staring to hurt. There has to be consequences to such craziness. It also looks like the US is now going into a gov shutdown... www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-22/what-happens-with-the-latest-us-federal-government-shutdown/10664104this with the yellow vests protests have a big potential to tip things over.
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Post by spinifex on Dec 23, 2018 12:24:55 GMT 10
It's a good looking strategy Frostbite. Should be able to make enough income off that with livestock to be able to pay rates and taxes on it and cover other essentials.
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Post by spinifex on Dec 23, 2018 12:47:41 GMT 10
I totally agree that inventing currency out of thin air has dire consequences for an economy (just look at the effectiveness of US v Russian military hardware these days). Hand out too much easy currency and the obese corporations get slack because results don't matter. And yes ... the end game this time will probably be reserve banks injecting currency directly into all our bank accounts. The economic system we are all in IS highly delusional. I just am betting that an even bigger bubble will be re-inflated after the current ones start to deflate because those in charge of the system will defend the status quo to the last round (re-liquidate markets of all kinds). Then they'll spike the cannon (hyperinflate) and destroy everything before retreating to well defended enclaves. Gold backed money may return for the privileged. Or ... it might not. Hard to say. Peoples attitudes have changed a bit since the fall of Rome. Last time round I did well on buying mining company shares when the likes of BHP tanked from 45 to 22 a share in late 2008 then back upto the 40's in 2011. Being naturally contrarian I'm looking for more of the same this time round. Probably in Ag commodities this time. If the system REALLY goes bust ... 'investments' will be the last of anyones worries. Just securing the basics to survive will be a deep challenge for the under-prepared. And even quite a few 'preppers' may be scratching their heads when day 366 of the crisis comes around and the last day of the years supply of food they had tucked away has been consumed. If one hasn't figured out their economic niche within a few weeks of the system flipping ... it will likely be a poor outcome. That is the billion dollar question, can central banks re-inflate the market or start with the helicopter money, by sending the printed money to main-street instead of wall-street... If more money printing is now undertaken when the US, EU have just said they are no longer buying bonds, all faith might be lost, who is going to buy the US bonds when the currencies start failing. With global economy slowing down and company earning starting to contract, and interest rates going up it is very difficult to justify stock purchases. The Chinese have been responsible for most of the global growth, but they have also come to an end with 50 million empty apartments etc.. there is not much left to build and the interest on the empty assets are staring to hurt. There has to be consequences to such craziness. It also looks like the US is now going into a gov shutdown... www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-22/what-happens-with-the-latest-us-federal-government-shutdown/10664104this with the yellow vests protests have a big potential to tip things over. I think they can. I don't care if they can't. Bonds are basically an exercise in Theatre anyway. The Gov pretends to borrow from a reserve bank that can create currency at will. So do you think the reserve bank cares if they ever get paid back? Losses are literally impossible for modern reserve banks because they don't have to hold any physical gold (ie a real world limited commodity that must be purchased at cost from somewhere) to back their new currency creation and debt issuance. That is exactly the reason why they'll defend the current system to the bitter end by making good the losses of top level players. The Yellow Vest movement will go into catastrophic meltdown in every country if the banking system lets the markets tank and real estate tank and wipe out everyones super and other classes of investment. I agree there has to be consequences ... buggered if I can forecast what they are beyond creating dysfunctional, non-productive economies and citizens. At the end of the day the main goal of the ruling class is to make sure the masses don't have reasons to revolt in a big way. There'll be a fair bit of bread and circus action to come for a while yet. And thanks to Nuclear weapons ... its not like a more organised, productive nation can take away land and resources from their disorganized, unproductive neighbours: as befell Rome and other great Empires of old. If Nukes didn't exist I bet we'd be in world war 3 right now!
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Post by graynomad on Dec 24, 2018 18:33:54 GMT 10
...The Gov pretends to borrow from a reserve bank that can create currency at will. So do you think the reserve bank cares if they ever get paid back?... I think I've just had an epiphany People say that the whole world is in debt and I thought maybe to China but I think they are 40 Trillion in debt as well. So the common response is "Who to? Mars!" Am I correct in saying that the "debt" that we talk of is just this borrowing from the reserve banks? If so who gives a toss?
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 24, 2018 19:40:45 GMT 10
...The Gov pretends to borrow from a reserve bank that can create currency at will. So do you think the reserve bank cares if they ever get paid back?... I think I've just had an epiphany People say that the whole world is in debt and I thought maybe China but I think they are 40 Trillion in debt as well. So the common response is "Who to? Mars!" Am I correct in saying that the "debt" that we talk of is just this borrowing from the reserve banks? If so who gives a toss? The US and other reserve banks pay interest on borrowed money/bonds. They are going into zombie mode -ie. the interest payments become more than income. They have to borrow ever more to pay interest etc... Japan borrows $2 for every $1 improvement in GDP. With the US putting up interest rates many companies are now in zombie mode for example GE (General Electric) borrowed huge amounts of money to do stock buy back - well over the last 3 months their stock price has dropped close to 40%, now their shares have lost value and they have to pay back the debt at higher interest rates. In 2000 they were the largest company on the world, in 2018 they were taken off the Dow Jones index. About half of the US stock surge was due to companies borrowing money to buy back stocks, to show how good they are and then paid the directors huge bonuses based on stock value. Little to no money was put back to develop new products or expand company production. As interest rates go up on the debt and stock prices fall it is creating the big mess we currently see in the markets, it is forced selling. It is all a house of cards and the gales are blowing.
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Post by graynomad on Dec 24, 2018 20:37:08 GMT 10
The US and other reserve banks pay interest on borrowed money/bonds. But pay interest to who? Who did they borrow from?
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 25, 2018 6:33:57 GMT 10
The US and other reserve banks pay interest on borrowed money/bonds. But pay interest to who? Who did they borrow from? To foreign governments buy bonds like the Chinese who own like $1.5T, most pension funds in the US are invested in gov bonds, there are also a lot of hedge funds and trading funds that invest in US gov bonds. Governments sell bonds to raise money and then pay interest on the debt. Australian gov sells bonds to pay for budget deficits and the interest on the money is getting problematic - that is why the Aus gov is always talking about balancing the budget. If people think the gov is about to go broke and can't honour the bond or more likely the government goes hyperinflation and inflates the debt away. So you still get paid the interest on the bond purchase but the money devaluated so fast that - that one looses. Well big crash overnight in the US Stocks ±3% on a half trading day, worst December for stocks since 1920's great depression, and the months is not over yet. US stocks like the rest of the world are now officially in bear territory having dropped more than 20% since October 2018 highs. Oil down 6.6% today, should be getting cheaper at the pumps soon. The US bond market had a flash crash overnight, traders selling bonds like crazy, it was one of the busiest trading Christmas eve's ever recorded. US dollar fell -which reduces the value of the bonds - yield curves are inverting - short term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This has only ever happened during a recession. US reserve bank spent the weekend talking to all the major banks on how to improve liquidity in the market as money availability is drying up and it is spooking the financials, bank stocks getting hammered. Treasury Flash Crash Inverts 1Y-2Y Curvewww.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-24/treasury-flash-crash-inverts-1y-2y-curveThe Longest Bull Market In History Is Over - S&P Enters Bear Marketwww.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-24/longest-bull-market-history-over-sp-enters-bear-market
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spatial
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Post by spatial on Dec 25, 2018 19:16:16 GMT 10
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Post by spinifex on Dec 26, 2018 17:43:39 GMT 10
...The Gov pretends to borrow from a reserve bank that can create currency at will. So do you think the reserve bank cares if they ever get paid back?... I think I've just had an epiphany People say that the whole world is in debt and I thought maybe to China but I think they are 40 Trillion in debt as well. So the common response is "Who to? Mars!" Am I correct in saying that the "debt" that we talk of is just this borrowing from the reserve banks? If so who gives a toss? Yes. At the highest level 'debt' is a colossal bullshit story we are all caught up in. Basically a smokescreen to stop the rest of us going nuts because some lucky, well connected people literally make 'money' from nowhere. I think I said this here before: The way our 'western' global monetary system works demands an ever increasing unpayable debt to be created because all new money is 'borrowed' into existence and then has to be paid back with interest. The interest also has to be borrowed into existence ... which automatically creates a new debt even as the old one is paid out. It blew my mind when an expert pointed this out. The global debt can only ever expand unless some debts get written off without repayment. That doesn't happen any more at the large scale because many large investing institutions are deemed 'too big to fail' and so get magically 'recapitalised' when they suffer great losses in market downturns. I just wish I was deemed 'too big to fail' so I could borrow and invest with gay abandon and fearless of any real consequences to my risk taking.
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