|
Post by SA Hunter on Nov 15, 2018 17:38:37 GMT 10
|
|
spatial
Senior Member
Posts: 2,186
Likes: 1,505
Member is Online
|
Post by spatial on Dec 11, 2018 19:05:09 GMT 10
|
|
|
Post by Joey on Dec 11, 2018 20:05:32 GMT 10
If the prices crash, watch all the foreign buyers run in a snap everything up leaving a big hole in the market for those looking for something to rent. As a large amount of foreign (Chinese) buyers don't move in to the houses/units and instead use it for their kids to stay in while they are holidaying/studying here and otherwise sits empty.
|
|
|
Post by Peter on Dec 11, 2018 20:53:07 GMT 10
If prices crash by that amount, I'll be looking to buy up. Buy, renovate, and flip when prices start rising again.
|
|
blueshoes
Senior Member
Posts: 608
Likes: 698
Location: Regional Dan-istan
|
Post by blueshoes on Dec 12, 2018 14:18:20 GMT 10
Yeah it's hard to know.
The debt to income ratio is more horrific than it has ever been, but still, land in my area has doubled over the last two years - it's only in the last quarter that auctions in overpriced suburbs have started to bottom out a bit.
A 30% drop in house prices isn't actually very much - a mid suburb house in Melbourne that was 500,000 five years ago is now over a million, and a 30% drop still only brings that back to 700k. That's still possibly overpriced and it's still a valuable asset. The way these articles talk about it makes it sound like Detroit-style houses losing value and massive social fallout.
A "crash" isn't total annihilation, just rich people whinging about stocks being worth 5% less and maybe high unemployment for a few years for people in b2b industries
|
|
spatial
Senior Member
Posts: 2,186
Likes: 1,505
Member is Online
|
Post by spatial on Dec 12, 2018 16:19:48 GMT 10
Yeah it's hard to know. The debt to income ratio is more horrific than it has ever been, but still, land in my area has doubled over the last two years - it's only in the last quarter that auctions in overpriced suburbs have started to bottom out a bit. A 30% drop in house prices isn't actually very much - a mid suburb house in Melbourne that was 500,000 five years ago is now over a million, and a 30% drop still only brings that back to 700k. That's still possibly overpriced and it's still a valuable asset. The way these articles talk about it makes it sound like Detroit-style houses losing value and massive social fallout. A "crash" isn't total annihilation, just rich people whinging about stocks being worth 5% less and maybe high unemployment for a few years for people in b2b industries It starts at the top end. Then works it way down. Canada has similar economy and housing bubble. China is placing very restrictions controls on foreign housing purchases, Canadian and Aus gov. are also limitig foreign purchases of houses. Canada has just started with a big wave of personal bankruptcy - not long and Aus will be joining them. Despite rising global interest rates, Aus reserve bank is talking about lowering rates as under the hood things are deteriorating in all asesset classes.
|
|
|
Post by Joey on Dec 12, 2018 18:46:58 GMT 10
To top this off, bill shorten has stated that he will overhaul the negative gearing rules to make it harder for future investment buyers, which has also had the economists crying out "recession starter" on top of that the banks really tightening up their lending policies making it harder to get loans
|
|
|
Post by spinifex on Dec 12, 2018 19:13:33 GMT 10
If you tell someone something often enough, eventually they will start to believe it. Is this crash real, or are we being manipulated? My personal experience is this: 2 years ago I bought 3 acres 2km from the beach for $180k. Last weekend I inspected 3 blocks, same size, approx 1km down the road from my block. 2 sold, 1 still available. These blocks not quite as good as mine, but slightly closer to beach. They sold for $380k. So it seems in the same period that we are being inundated by scare mongerers constantly screaming housing crash, that my land has more than doubled in value. Anyone else smell a rat? What I can't get my head around is how can property price double in two years when personal income growth is relatively flat? That doesn't really add up. Prices (theoretically) should only sustainably rise in step with the ability of people to pay. Who are the buyers boosting the prices? Where is the money coming from? I've had property I own rise pretty quickly at times and benefited from it ... but not in last few years. On Eyre Peninsula small rural holdings 10-100 acres have actually declined a lot from peak prices 5 years ago. Residential seems to have had zero growth for several years here too.
|
|
|
Post by Peter on Dec 12, 2018 22:56:39 GMT 10
I've mostly invested in commercial & industrial property in the past; this has been profitable mostly from rental income paying off mortgages. I enjoy having others work to pay my bills, although Capital Gains tax is a mongrel as it's largely a tax on inflation.
My residential profits have been a result of slump buy/boom sale. I also sell a house in much better condition than I buy it; it's amazing to see how (for example) a quick $2,000 cleanup of just the front garden can sometimes add $10k plus to the sale price. Not helped by the reprehensible amount of stamp duty stolen by the WA govt from each real estate transaction...
The biggest financial mistake people make in my opinion? Reckless spending. I know too many people who had wonderful opportunities for profit, but wasted them through overcapitalizing on properties, wasting money on fancier cars than they need, buying too many toys (motorbikes, jetskis, caravans, etc) for their ability to pay for, etc. Let me put it another way: I use my credit card daily. I replenish funds in it weekly from my savings account. And I never spend more on it in a week than I can earn in under a week. I have zero desire to have sleepless nights wondering how I'll keep the creditors at bay...
|
|
Pion
Senior Member
Posts: 353
Likes: 422
|
Post by Pion on Dec 12, 2018 23:08:31 GMT 10
This is identical to the market in NZ...ultimately when you look at values (existing and new), the cost of building (materials and skills), the cost of servicing new builds and the cost of lending (and you'all sure know about how banks work here!) it comes down to one word...greed.
Now I know that'll puff out some members chests but not all greed is self created...some is forced (think having to get into a bigger house because the family is growing, especially if banking lending has become nonexistent; conversely even downsizing now has the same woes)...greed drives our economy and largely that greed stems from corporate desire to always be making 30+%...the average guy will try to keep up but I'm not holding my breath they will last...Corporate profits trump (bad pun) countries GDP's when it comes down to it...
Capitalism in this form cannot continue in a sustainable evolution and when it collapses it is always the little guy that is burned...corporates will upstakes and abandon a country faster than a rat up a drainpipe if they see their margins shrink or go bust...
IMHO...
|
|
norseman
VIP Member
Practical is Tactical!
Posts: 2,145
Likes: 1,852
|
Post by norseman on Dec 13, 2018 8:01:49 GMT 10
The rise in value of my block is from rich retirees selling up in Sydney and buying lifestyle acreages on the far south coast. ABSOFARGENLUTELY!! It's happening everywhere and it's real money coming out to the regionals not borrowed funds! This is white flight big time and the rich retirees figured it out LEAVE THE CITIES for the rats and cockroaches that are flooding in!
|
|
Pion
Senior Member
Posts: 353
Likes: 422
|
Post by Pion on Dec 13, 2018 16:47:32 GMT 10
|
|
|
Post by Peter on Dec 13, 2018 20:49:30 GMT 10
This is why I'm keen to remove all existing taxes and replace them with a "transaction tax"; that is, a small tax (perhaps 1-2%) on all transactions. The gubment will have more money to waste than they currently do (so in theory they should be happy) and those of us who work won't be left with the burden...
|
|
|
Post by Joey on Dec 13, 2018 21:31:46 GMT 10
This is why I'm keen to remove all existing taxes and replace them with a "transaction tax"; that is, a small tax (perhaps 1-2%) on all transactions. The gubment will have more money to waste than they currently do (so in theory they should be happy) and those of us who work won't be left with the burden... The other way to work it is similar to the Chinese system (as it was explained to me by my old boss who use to spend 3-4mths a year over there but never read up on it if it's how it actually happens) Pay zero income tax so your weekly wage is that few hundred dollars higher but the crux is the GST would be 15-20%. So the government still gets it's cut but because you are suddenly earning that extra amount each week, you then have more expendable income so you spend more at the shops, thus the government is still getting paid and I don't get sad when I see $680 a week removed from my wage in taxes
|
|
|
Post by Peter on Dec 13, 2018 22:33:17 GMT 10
Or there's a third option...
Remove excessive politician "entitlements" and cut out their 100% permanent superannuation. That'll save a metric craptonne of money.
Remove wastage by gubment and you'll save a heap of the rest of it.
|
|
spatial
Senior Member
Posts: 2,186
Likes: 1,505
Member is Online
|
Post by spatial on Dec 14, 2018 15:16:59 GMT 10
|
|
spatial
Senior Member
Posts: 2,186
Likes: 1,505
Member is Online
|
Post by spatial on Dec 14, 2018 20:19:40 GMT 10
|
|
spatial
Senior Member
Posts: 2,186
Likes: 1,505
Member is Online
|
Post by spatial on Dec 15, 2018 11:58:38 GMT 10
|
|
|
Post by spinifex on Dec 15, 2018 14:57:53 GMT 10
If it seems too good to be true it probably is. Buyer beware!
I'd be looking to find out if this house has some kind of EPA contamination notice or something on it. Or a Heritage order that makes renovation impossible.
Or maybe the place is next door to something objectionable, owners cant sell it and are tired of paying rates and taxes on it.
|
|
Pion
Senior Member
Posts: 353
Likes: 422
|
Post by Pion on Dec 15, 2018 22:21:43 GMT 10
In Fukushima prefecture?...
|
|